GBPNZD Channel breakout or wave

Bearish:  We are currently @ 1.9355 just out of a channel.  We have convergence to the downside.  Two scenarios: Bullish:  the move finished a 4th wave, and we now do a 5th wave up to the R5 @ 1.9445. 2: Bearish: A break down here or the 1.2996 area would target the ATR target @ 1.9248.  Watch the USDX for any change in direction. The ATR for the pair currently is 165 pips per day and its 180 day average is 163 pips per day. USDX is currently threatening up at the time of this post.  

#GBPNZD